Not a guess about the future — real market history. More than actual -year stretches, crashes and all.
Each house stands for about 8 real historical retirement starts. The colors show how much adjusting the retiree had to do.
Green means no lean years.
Amber means a brief rough patch.
Clay means a longer rough patch, but the plan still made it through 30 years.
Here's the good news — and it's almost all good news.
In every one of those histories, this plan lasted the full 30 years. The middle one paid about a year, year in and year out. Even the histories that began with a crash still added up to a full retirement.
A few had a rough patch — usually a year or two of belt-tightening, almost always early, if a downturn hit before your savings had room to grow. In those years the rule cut spending to keep the portfolio alive instead of draining it. It works like cruise control — when the road gets steep, it eases off the gas so you never run dry, then picks right back up.
No system makes retirement painless in every market.
This rule did not eliminate hard years. It prevented hard years from becoming a failed retirement.
Each square below is one year from the toughest historical retirement we found. Green means the full goal or better. Amber means below the goal but above the must-haves. Clay means below the must-haves.
That would feel frustrating. It would require tradeoffs. Fewer extras, delayed travel, tighter gifts to family. But the alternative is worse: keep spending as if nothing happened and risk running out later.
If someone tells you their retirement system avoids every uncomfortable year, they are selling comfort, not truth. A good system does not promise there will never be pain. It decides how to respond before pain arrives.
The simple picture above is the takeaway. The technical view below shows every one of the historical starts. Click a dot to open its 30-year journey, year by year.